Dr Riverson Oppong, COMAC CEO
Ghana may be heading toward renewed fuel supply uncertainty and price volatility, following fresh tensions between Israel and Iran that have jolted global oil markets.
A new report by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), issued in June 2025, warns that while pump prices in Ghana have temporarily declined, the country remains deeply vulnerable to external shocks — particularly in its downstream petroleum sector.
The report notes that Brent crude prices have already risen by over 7.5%, nearing $75 per barrel, due to the unfolding conflict. Historically, geopolitical instability in the Middle East — especially involving key transit zones like the Strait of Hormuz — has led to global price spikes ranging between 10% and 30%. Although there are no immediate disruptions in supply, the elevated uncertainty could spell trouble for countries like Ghana that rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products.
Currently, Ghanaians are seeing slight reductions in pump prices. Some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have already lowered the prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG by as much as 4.3%. COMAC attributes this temporary relief to the Ghanaian cedi’s recent 15% appreciation against the US dollar and the government’s suspension of the proposed GH¢1 per litre increment under the Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (ESSDRL). However, the chamber cautions that this reprieve may be short-lived.
The Ghanaian fuel pricing system operates on a windowed model that slightly delays the impact of global trends. Many bulk importers are still selling from stocks purchased before the Israel-Iran tensions intensified. Once new shipments are priced under current market realities, consumers may feel the full effects of global volatility.
Despite the price dip, the COMAC report paints a concerning picture of Ghana’s structural weaknesses. With local refineries like the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) still dormant due to financial and operational challenges, Ghana spends over $400 million every month importing fuel. The country also lacks a functioning strategic reserve system, meaning it has no buffer should there be a sudden supply disruption.
The report stresses that to mitigate such risks, Ghana must undertake urgent reforms. These include reviving TOR, strengthening the operational and logistical capacity of the Bulk Oil Storage and Transportation Company (BOST), and ensuring that adequate foreign exchange reserves are available to support petroleum imports. It also recommends phasing out subsidies on untaxed petroleum products such as MGO Local, which could save the country over GHS 431 million annually. Such funds could be redirected to reduce the sector’s mounting debt.
COMAC warns that Ghana cannot afford to wait for the next global crisis before taking action. The conflict between Israel and Iran serves as a reminder that external shocks can swiftly unravel domestic gains. With no strategic reserves and a dependence on foreign supply chains, the country remains in a precarious position.
The report concludes with a call for a bold and proactive energy strategy that shifts the country from short-term fixes to long-term resilience. Ghana’s current stability at the pump may feel like a relief, but it is, in COMAC’s words, a “delicate calm before possible disruption.”
